In-depth analysis of the U.S. “Big and Beautiful” bill: controversies, impacts and responses!

1. What is the American “Big and Beautiful” Act?

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is a comprehensive fiscal bill promoted by the Trump administration. Its core content can be summarized as a combination of "tax cuts + welfare cuts + military spending expansion" :

1. Large-scale tax cuts : Lower tax rates for businesses and high-income groups to stimulate investment .

2. Cuts to social security : Significant cuts to welfare programs such as Medicaid and SNAP will result in millions of people losing health insurance and nutrition assistance .

3. Increase military spending and energy subsidies : Strengthen defense spending and expand subsidies for the fossil energy industry .

4. Raising the debt ceiling : Adding $5 trillion in debt space, pushing up the fiscal deficit to $3.9 trillion over the next decade (far exceeding the $3 trillion in the original House bill) .

The bill was 940 pages long and it took the Senate 16 hours just to read the text. , which was criticized by the Democratic Party as a gift from the rich to "rob the poor and give to the rich" .

2. Why did it cause huge controversy across the United States?

The controversy focuses on three major contradictions:

1. Social fairness controversy :

Democrats accused the bill of "trading the poor's bread for the rich's yachts," cutting $1.2 trillion in welfare to support tax cuts and exacerbating the gap between the rich and the poor .

The Republican Party is divided, with two Republican senators turning against the bill and voting against it, and all the Democrats among the 49 senators voting against it .

2. Questions about financial sustainability :

The Congressional Budget Office warned that the bill would cause the U.S. national debt to surge by $3.3 trillion over ten years, jeopardizing fiscal security .

3. Programming game is heating up :

The Republicans won by a narrow margin of 51:49 with a last-ditch vote (Senator Ron Johnson voted in favor). .

The Democrats launched a "reading tactic" to delay and try to stimulate public opposition .

III. Specific Impacts on the United States and the World

1. Mainland United States:

Economic level : It may stimulate corporate investment in the short term, but the expansion of fiscal deficits in the long term may push up inflation and interest rates .

Social level : Welfare cuts may trigger protests from low-income groups and exacerbate social divisions .

Political level : If the bill is passed, Trump's approval rating may rise in the short term, but he may suffer a rebound in the midterm elections .

2. Global shock waves:

1. Capital market turmoil :

The tax increase clause affects non-US investors, which may weaken foreign investors' confidence in US dollar assets and trigger capital to flow back to the US .

Demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and US bonds has increased (e.g. Shanghai gold futures have fluctuated) .

2. Trade frictions escalate :

The bill contains implicit provisions for additional steel and aluminum tariffs, which directly impacts exporters to the United States (such as China and the European Union). .

3. Debt risk spillover :

Damage to U.S. Treasury credit could push up global borrowing costs .

(III) Main impact areas on my country:

1. Export manufacturing :

Steel, aluminum, and electromechanical products face higher tariff barriers, and profits of exporting companies to the United States are under pressure .

2. Financial Markets :

Foreign investors may reduce their holdings of Chinese stocks (the bill increases the tax burden on overseas investments), and the inflow of foreign capital into Hong Kong and A-shares will slow down .

3. Energy and technology competition :

US fossil energy subsidies weaken my country's new energy price advantage; technology war escalates with the injection of funds from the bill .

IV. my country’s response strategy

1. Short-term countermeasures:

Imposing retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, automobiles, etc. to balance trade losses (refer to the experience of the 2018 trade war) .

2. Adjustment of the industrial chain:

Accelerate the "internal circulation" and expand diversified exports to ASEAN and the EU .

3. Financial defense:

Increase gold reserves to hedge against US dollar risks; strictly control abnormal cross-border capital flows .

4.Technical breakthrough:

Increase subsidies for independent research and development of semiconductors and new energy to offset the squeeze from US policies .

Conclusion: A gamble and global chain reaction

The essence of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is Trump's political gamble - using short-term economic stimulus to exchange for election chips, but the cost is overdrawing fiscal credit and tearing apart social consensus. It passed with a narrow margin (51:49) It is a microcosm of the polarization of American politics. For the world, if the bill is finally passed (it still needs a second vote in the House of Representatives), ), will force countries to restructure their trade and financial strategies. my country needs to respond with "bottom line thinking" and turn pressure into a driving force for technological upgrading and market diversification.