In-depth analysis of the U.S. “Big and Beautiful” bill: controversies, impacts and responses!

1. What is the US “Big and Beautiful” Act?

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is a comprehensive fiscal bill promoted by the Trump administration. Its core content can be summarized as a combination of "tax cuts, welfare cuts, and military spending expansion" :

1. Large-scale tax cuts : Lower tax rates for businesses and high-income groups to stimulate investment .

2. Cuts to social security : Significant cuts to welfare programs like Medicaid and SNAP are expected to result in millions of people losing health insurance and nutrition assistance. .

3. Increase military spending and energy subsidies : Strengthen defense spending and expand subsidies for the fossil energy industry .

4. Raising the debt ceiling : adding $5 trillion in borrowing space, pushing the fiscal deficit to $3.9 trillion over the next decade (far exceeding the $3 trillion in the original House bill) .

The bill is 940 pages long and it took the Senate 16 hours just to read the text. , which was criticized by the Democrats as a gift from the rich to "rob the poor and help the rich" .

2. Why did it cause huge controversy across the United States?

The controversy focuses on three major contradictions:

1. Social fairness controversy :

Democrats accused the bill of "trading the poor's bread for the rich's yachts," cutting $1.2 trillion in welfare benefits to support tax cuts and exacerbating the gap between the rich and the poor. .

The Republican Party is divided, with two Republican senators turning against the bill and voting against it, and all the Democrats are among the 49 who voted against it. .

2. Questions about fiscal sustainability :

The Congressional Budget Office warned that the bill would cause the U.S. national debt to surge by $3.3 trillion over ten years, jeopardizing fiscal security. .

3. Programming game is heating up :

The Republicans won by a narrow margin of 51-49 thanks to a last-ditch vote (Senator Ron Johnson voted in favor). .

Democrats use "reading tactics" to delay and try to stimulate public opposition .

III. Specific Impacts on the United States and the World

(1) Mainland United States:

Economic level : It may stimulate corporate investment in the short term, but the long-term expansion of fiscal deficits may push up inflation and interest rates .

Social level : Welfare cuts may trigger protests from low-income groups, exacerbating social divisions .

Political level : If the bill is passed, Trump's approval rating may rise in the short term, but may rebound in the midterm elections .

2. Global shock waves:

1. Capital market turmoil :

The tax increase provisions affect non-US investors, which may weaken foreign confidence in US dollar assets and trigger capital outflows back to the US. .

Demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries is rising (e.g. Shanghai gold futures have already seen fluctuations) .

2. Escalation of trade frictions :

The bill implicitly includes additional tariffs on steel and aluminum, which will directly impact countries exporting to the US (such as China and the EU). .

3. Debt risk spillover :

Damage to the creditworthiness of U.S. Treasury bonds could push up global borrowing costs .

(3) Main areas of impact on my country:

1. Export manufacturing :

Steel, aluminum, and electromechanical products face higher tariff barriers, putting pressure on profits for companies exporting to the US .

2. Financial Markets :

Foreign investors may reduce their holdings of Chinese concept stocks (the bill increases the tax burden on overseas investment), and the inflow of foreign capital into Hong Kong and A-shares will slow down. .

3. Energy and technology competition :

US fossil fuel subsidies weaken my country's new energy price advantage; the technology war escalates with the injection of funds from the bill .

IV. my country's Response Strategy

1. Short-term countermeasures:

Imposing retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, automobiles, etc. to offset trade losses (referring to the experience of the 2018 trade war) .

2. Adjustment of the industrial chain:

Accelerate the "internal circulation" and expand diversified exports to ASEAN and the EU .

3. Financial defense:

Increase gold reserves to hedge against dollar risks; strictly control abnormal cross-border capital flows .

4.Technological breakthrough:

Increase subsidies for independent research and development of semiconductors and new energy to offset the squeeze from US policies .

Conclusion: A Big Gamble and a Global Chain Reaction

The "Big, Beautiful" bill is essentially a political gamble by Trump—using short-term economic stimulus to gain election leverage, but at the cost of overdrawing fiscal credit and tearing apart social consensus. It passed with a narrow margin (51:49). It is a microcosm of the polarization of American politics. For the world, if the bill is finally passed (it still needs a second vote in the House of Representatives), ), will force countries to restructure their trade and financial strategies. my country needs to adopt a "bottom-line approach" to respond, turning pressure into a driving force for technological upgrading and market diversification.